Monday, May 20, 2024

Easter Weekend Box Office Prediction: Super Mario Bros. Movie Could Bring in $150M in Long Holiday Kickoff

Photo Credits: Universal & Nintendo & Illumination (“The Super Mario Bros.” Movie); Amazon Studios (“Air”)

After months of families waiting for new content and decades of waiting for Nintendo fans, The movie Super Mario Bros is finally arriving for what is shaping up to be among the best box office debuts of Easter and April.

As Universal is entering MarioWith the five-day long weekend expected to be around $100 million to $110 million, pre-release trends have signaled a higher ceiling for potential in recent weeks.

First up, The Intangibles: This is the studio’s first major animated release since December Puss in Boots: The Last Wish. To its credit, that film has been riding the wave of buzz ever since, but the theatrical market for family-focused films has otherwise been very quiet for an entire quarter.

This is leading to pent-up demand and the start of a more normal release pattern for such titles during the rest of the year.

Additionally, Universal and Illumination have a strong reputation for creating crowd-pleasing animated films for moviegoers of all ages. See last summer’s success Minions: The Rise of Gruthe highest-grossing animated release of the post-pandemic era to date, and their pre-COVID stretch of films in I’m disgusting, The Secret Life of Pets, Sing franchises and others.

Additionally, despite some initial online criticism of Mario’s voice, the strong ensemble cast led by Chris Pratt, Charlie Day, Anya Taylor-Joy, Jack Black, Seth Rogen, Keegan-Michael Key, Fred Armisen and others provides an easy selling point. for parents. Ditto for the film’s promise of colorful comedy and adventure packed into a brisk 92-minute runtime that’s easy to schedule for busy families.

Perhaps most importantly, though: Nintendo and Mario IPs are primarily generative brands. Spanning numerous video games and a vast universe of merchandise for nearly forty years, the property and its vast array of familiar characters and worlds are perhaps the closest analog to Star Wars in the field of video games.

Consumers of all ages and backgrounds have at least heard of Mario at some point in the past four decades, and a large number certainly played or literally grew up in the iconic series. This is the kind of movie that is destined to thrive not only in mainstream markets, but also in middle America.

These factors are validated in the data.

Since the first trailer launch, The movie Super Mario Bros has consistently generated a healthy following on social media, which has grown significantly as the studio’s promotion ramped up in recent weeks — dating back to Mario Day on March 10, when tickets for the film also went on sale.

The video game streaming community on platforms like Twitch has served as an additional source of viral marketing for teens and adults as hype for the release has grown, not to mention the traditional avalanche of ads aimed at younger viewers.

Pre-sales for the film started with a bang nearly four weeks ago, and they haven’t let up. By closing the pre-release window, MarioThe first day of release (Wednesday) was only 19 percent behind Avatar: The Path of WaterPreview launch day and 30 percent back Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania‘s (both Thursdays), with independent sampling.

While deficit comparisons may not seem impressive at first, they are important indicators of how due Mario will open in the middle of the week when some schools are still in session. It’s also likely to be a lot more pedestrian-friendly than movies like a Marvel movie.

The other side of that equation: Spring break is in effect for many (though not all) schools in certain parts of the country right now. MarioThe third day of play will be the start of the Easter weekend when schools are out of session on Good Friday. Pre-sales for the day were trending 29 percent ahead of Wednesday’s first and 14 percent ahead of QuantumThe Business of “Real Friday” (no Thursday previews).

In other words, Mario it’s already showing that it won’t be a massive hit at the box office on its first day of release. Granted, it’s not surprising that a bank holiday Friday would generate stronger sales than a Wednesday when the main audience is families with children – however, reaching those figures in volume they’re competing with sequels fan-driven live is very visible. .

The all-time best Wednesday earnings for an animated film goes to Illumination Despicable Me 2 ($35 million). This came the day before Independence Day, when summer vacation was peaking, but that was ten years ago. Ticket prices have risen roughly 30 percent in the decade since, which gives Mario fireball’s chance to approach – if not completely reset – that record.

If the film can climb that high, Friday is worth watching for history making as well. Currently, the biggest non-opening day gross for an animated film on Friday belongs to Frozen II ($34.1 million). The nearest future is Despicable Me 2 ($30.5 million).

As for the Easter weekend, several scenarios could play out. Good Friday will be cool, which should translate into milder-than-usual Saturdays. Easter Sunday will see some films fall more than others, but a short, family film such as Mario.

The three-day weekend will be slightly softened by the long opening, but the industry may still be talking about a $100 million-plus three-day frame for Mariowhich would be the first in the animation medium for Easter.

The three current leaders of the parties are Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice ($166 million), Angry 7 ($147.2 million) and The fate of madmen ($98.8 million) – all representing Friday through Sunday periods.

Stretching the spectrum across April, only four films have ever grossed $100 million or more in the Friday-to-Sunday period: Avengers: Endgame, Avengers: Infinity War, Angry 7AND The Jungle Book ($103.3 million), the most realistic target of the quartet).

For the five days (Wednesday to Sunday), a haul north of $150 million looks very achievable at this stage.

Of course, reviews and word of mouth matter Mario?

The film has divided critics with its 54 percent Rotten Tomatoes score (108 reviews) as of Wednesday morning, but this is the kind of film critics are probably looking at for its opening week and weekend. Enlightenment films in general have often created a gap between critics and moviegoers, with the films coming first. Minions (55 percent) and Despicable Me 3 (59 percent) also didn’t beat the top rating scores, but still fared very well among the paying public.

As such, Mario remains poised to deliver not only a historic Easter weekend debut, but potentially the biggest animated performance of the post-pandemic era to date, and one of the biggest box office performances of 2023.

Not to be forgotten is this weekend’s debut air under the banner of Amazon Studios. Its pre-release tracking has steadily improved thanks to advanced performances that help generate positive word of mouth, now backed by a strong 97 percent Rotten Tomatoes critics score.

air hopes to counter-program among men 25+ with its strong ensemble cast led by Matt Damon and Ben Affleck (also director), plus a marketing campaign that cleverly capitalized on the March Madness NCAA tournament in recent weeks. As a result, pre-sales have benefited, and the studio expects a five-day opening of over $16 million.

Also debuting in limited release this weekend is IFC Films’ REDplanned to open in about 800 countries.

On the front, look for some movies that will be hit hard Mario liar

The most obvious one will be that of Paramount Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves as it loses the width of the premium screens to the Italian hydraulics. However, with a healthy debut of $37.2 million with very strong words in tow, Cells it may return as quickly as the initial shock over the next few days.

Weekend range

The movie Super Mario Bros
3-Day Opening Weekend Range: 102 – 127 million dollars
5-Day Opening Weekend Range: 150 – 185 million dollars

3-Day Opening Weekend Range: 10-14 million dollars
5-Day Opening Weekend Range: 15-20 million dollars

Weekend forecast and location count

The actual projection range requires a 69 to 96 percent increase from last weekend’s top ten of $91.7 million.

movie Studio 3-day weekend forecast Estimated domestic total as of Sunday, April 2 Friday location count projection (from Wednesday) % 3-day change from previous day
The movie Super Mario Bros Universal photo 112 000 000 dollars $165,000,000 4,025 (Wednesday) / 4,343 (Friday) NEW
Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves Paramount Pictures 13 600 000 dollars 61 700 000 dollars ~ 3855 -63%
John Wick: Chapter 4 Lionsgate $13,400,000 $145,600,000 ~ 3600 -53%
air Amazon Studios 11 600 000 dollars $16,900,000 3507 NEW
His only son Angel Studios $3,800,000 11 800 000 dollars ~ 1920 -31%
Scream VI Paramount Pictures $3,500,000 $104,100,000 ~2500 -34%
Creed III MGM $2,800,000 $153,400,000 ~ 2300 -44%
Shazam! Fury of the Gods Warner Bros. Pictures $2,100,000 $57,400,000 ~ 2400 -54%
RED IFC Films $1,200,000 $1,200,000 ~800 NEW
65 Sony Pictures / Colombia 900 thousand dollars $32,200,000 ~1000 -43%

All predictions are subject to revision/finalizationn before the first confirmation of opening previews or Friday ratings from studios or official sources.

Theater numbers are either studio estimates OR unofficial predictions if preceded by a “~”.

The table above does not necessarily represent the top ten as some studios do not finalize weekend location counts and/or intend to report box office returns prior to release.



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