Saturday, May 18, 2024

Weekend Box Office Prediction: Disney’s The Little Mermaid Could Earn $135-140M High + Memorial Day Bow

Photo Credits: Disney & Dion Beebe (“The Little Mermaid”)

Often one of the top-grossing weekends on the box office calendar, this Memorial Day is shaping up to be a great day for Disney’s The Little Mermaid.

While early tracking already indicated what would have been a healthy $100 million four-day domestic opening, pre-release social trends and ticket sales have continued to gain momentum. Independent models now point to a possible four-day arc north of $135 million.

Accurate predictions (see below) are even stronger. Disney itself is understandably more conservative, expecting about $120 million for the four days.

It’s worth noting that the market’s overall business this weekend could surpass last year’s $174.4 million three-day haul from the top ten films in the same holiday corridor, which itself topped the three-day pre-pandemic Memorial frame of $173.1 million in 2019.

Raising optimism is pent-up demand for a female-led tentpole with generational appeal, combined with generally positive reviews with a current score of 73 percent from 123 critics on Rotten Tomatoes.

Pre-sales have steadily gained steam in recent weeks with Wednesday’s Early Access screenings along with Thursday’s traditional tracking for more than $11 million and potentially over $13 million. For reference, 2019 Aladdin the remake earned $7 million from Thursday previews — though the market has certainly evolved in the past four years. siren it will certainly be a bit busier.

Just last year, Paramount Top Gun: Maverick set a new Memorial Day weekend record with a $126.7 million three-day / $160.5 million four-day split, falling Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End 15-year benchmarks of $114.7 million / $139.8 million. Now, a year later, Disney has a chance to eclipse itself with it siren having a shot to at least overcome The pirates three for Memorial’s second-best start ever.

All that said, this weekend’s game will be critical to reach the growing range of potential. As a very female-heavy film, it will be interesting to see how the demographics pan out. AladdinOpening weekend drew an audience 54 percent female, compared to Lion Kingis 53 percent that same summer and Beauty and the Beastit is 60 percent in 2017.

the original The little mermaid the film was never the box office powerhouse of Disney’s later animated films in the 1990s, but this modern remake is trending in the right direction to sit alongside some of the studio’s most successful live-action reimaginings .

At the front of the holder, X quickly there will be a sharp decline due to the natural loading of the franchise and the simultaneous loss of many premium screens in siren.

The previous film, F9, slipped over 67 percent in its second frame in the summer of 2021 as the theatrical recovery was just beginning amid the pandemic. However, that film didn’t have much competition at the time X quickly maybe it can still co-exist as a male-driven tent pole.

Meanwhile, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 AND The movie Super Mario Bros should take advantage of the long holiday weekend and family participation even with a little competition from sirenthe debut of

A few more openings will hit theaters this weekend, albeit with mostly middling expectations. Lionsgate’s About My Father is likely to stand out as a comedy counter-programmer with modest family potential, albeit Sony’s The machine there will be special live performances to help organize Bert Kreischer’s photography.

Open Road will also launch the model led by Gerard Butler Kandaharwhile A24 is sending You hurt my feelings in moderate release in about 900 unconfirmed countries. We are currently not offering predictions for the latter.

Weekend range

About My Father
4-Day Opening Weekend Range: 4-7 million dollars

Kandahar
4-Day Opening Weekend Range: 2.5 – 5 million dollars

The Little Mermaid
4-Day Opening Weekend Range: 130 – 155 million dollars

The machine
4-Day Opening Weekend Range: 3-5 million dollars

Weekend forecast and location count

The actual projection range requires a 47 to 57 percent increase up from last weekend’s $118.9 million.

movie Studio 3-day weekend forecast Estimated domestic total as of Sunday, May 28 Friday location count projection (from Wednesday) % 3-day change from previous day 4-day weekend forecast Estimated domestic total as of Monday, May 29
The Little Mermaid (2023) Pictures of Walt Disney 117 800 000 dollars 117 800 000 dollars ~ 4300 NEW 149 000 000 dollars 149 000 000 dollars
X quickly Universal photo $25,700,000 $112,300,000 ~ 4046 -62% $32,400,000 119 000 000 dollars
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Disney / Marvel Studios $19,000,000 $297,300,000 ~ 3900 -41% $24,700,000 303 000 000 dollars
The movie Super Mario Bros Universal photo 6,000,000 dollars 558 700 000 dollars ~ 3200 -37% $7,600,000 $560,300,000
About My Father Lionsgate $5,300,000 $5,300,000 ~ 2400 NEW $6,500,000 $6,500,000
The machine Sony Pictures / Legendary $3,800,000 $3,800,000 ~ 2300 NEW 4 600 000 dollars 4 600 000 dollars
Kandahar Movies on the open road $2,400,000 $2,400,000 2105 NEW 3,000,000 dollars 3,000,000 dollars
Dead evil rises Warner Bros. Pictures $1,300,000 66 400 000 dollars ~ 1100 -46% $1,600,000 $66,700,000

All predictions are subject to revision/finalizationn before the first confirmation of opening previews or Friday ratings from studios or official sources.

Theater numbers are either studio estimates OR unofficial predictions if preceded by a “~”.

The table above does not necessarily represent the top ten as some studios do not finalize weekend location counts and/or intend to report box office returns prior to release.

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