Sunday, June 23, 2024

Weekend Box Office: WONKA Three-Peats to Start 2024, NIGHT SWIM Treads Water in Second Place

Images courtesy: Warner Bros., Universal

#1 = Wonka

In its fourth frame, Warner Bros.’ fantasy musical held like an Everlasting Gobstopper to claim the lead for a third nonconsecutive frame with $14.4M.

The film originally debuted on top, then fell to the runner-up slot against the opening of Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, before regaining the lead in its third and now fourth frames.

Wonka marks the first film to spend three frames atop the box office since horror The Nun II in September, also a Warner Bros. title.

The last film to do so prior: Barbie with four such weekends, also a Warner Bros. title as well.

Wonka also marks the first “interrupted” #1 movie since Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse last June, which spent both its first and fourth frames on top.

Wonka has now earned $164.6M total through 24 days.Through the same point in release, that’s running:

  • -2% below 2005’s non-musical Charlie and the Chocolate Factory = $169.4M, better than its -30% opening weekend
  • +13% above 2018’s Mary Poppins Returns = $145.2M
  • +46% above 2014’s Into the Woods = $112.4M
  • +91% above 2017’s The Greatest Showman = $85.8M

#2 = Night Swim

The Universal Pictures and Blumhouse horror failed to cut through the water with a $12.0M debut.

As projected, that’s on the lower end of Blumhouse horror titles, though in the same general range as prior Blumhouse titles including:

  • 2015’s The Lazarus Effect = $10.2M
  • 2015’s The Gift = $11.8M
  • 2014’s Oculus = $12.0M
  • February 2020’s Fantasy Island = $12.3M
  • 2011’s Insidious = $13.2M
  • 2016’s Ouija: Origin of Evil = $14.0M
  • 2015’s Unfriended = $15.8M

Though it would have been difficult to match, Swim also opened well below the main January horror releases from each of the past two years:

  • -60% below 2022’s Scream = $30.0M
  • -61% below 2023’s M3GAN = $30.4M

Audience demographics

Swim’s estimated audience was 51% male and 52% younger than 25.

By race, it was 38% white, 31% Hispanic, 18% black, and 7% Asian.

The movie earned a weak “C” CinemaScore.

#3 = Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom

Last weekend, the Warner Bros. superhero sequel “lost” -34% in its sophomore frame, steeper than 2018’s original Aquaman with -23%.

Now in its third frame, Kingdom falls another -42% to $10.6M.

For comparison, Kingdom’s first three frames ranked first place, then second place, then third place – while 2018’s original Aquaman spent all its first three frames on top.

Kingdom has earned $100.0M through 17 days. Through the same point in release, that’s running below the original Aquaman, but better than several comparable 2022 or 2023 superhero movies:

  • -61% below December 2018’s original Aquaman = $260.0M, slightly worse than its -59% opening
  • -27% below 2022’s Black Adam = $137.1M, better than its -58% opening
  • Less than +1% above June’s The Flash = $99.4M, better than its -49% opening
  • +30% above November’s The Marvels = $76.7M, better than its -40% opening
  • +76% above March’s Shazam!: Fury of the Gods = $56.5M, better than its -8% opening
  • +77% above August’s Blue Beetle = $56.4M, better than its +10% opening

 

#4 = Migration

In its third frame, Universal’s Illumination animated title drops -39% to $10.2M.

It’s now earned $77.8M through 17 days. Versus other comparable 2023 animated titles through the same point in release, that’s:

  • -13% below June’s Elemental = $89.6M
  • -5% below August’s Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem = $82.0M
  • +3% above November’s Trolls Band Together = $75.0M
  • +71% above November’s Wish = $45.2M

Versus some other animated comps from recent holiday seasons, Migration is also running:

  • -22% below December 2021’s Sing 2, also from Illumination = $99.7M
  • Less than -1% below 2022’s Puss in Boots: The Last Wish = $77.9M

#5 = Anyone But You

Sony Pictures’ romantic comedy actually increases +9% to $9.5M, earning its best weekend to date on its third frame – exceptionally rare for a movie which opened wide.

It’s now earned $43.7M through 17 days. Versus the other main R-rated comedy of 2023, it’s now running +7% above June’s No Hard Feelings = $40.5M, despite opening -60% below.

It’s also running either ahead of or just behind several other romantic comedies from the past five years, even if most were PG-13, despite debuting far below:

  • -3% below 2019’s What Men Want = $45.1M, better than its -67% opening
  • -6% below 2022’s Ticket to Paradise = $46.7M, better than its -63% opening
  • +56% above 2019’s Last Christmas = $27.8M, better than its -47% opening
  • +70% above 2019’s Long Shot = $25.6M, better than its -38% opening
  • +83% above September’s My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 = $23.8M, better than its -40% opening
  • 2.15x 2022’s Marry Me = $20.2M,  better than its -24% opening

Overseas / global

It wasn’t just domestically: overseas holdover markets for Anyone also increased this weekend by +19%.

The film has now earned $14.7M overseas and $58.4M globally, or 25% overseas.

Major markets yet to release include Germany, Mexico, Spain, France, Brazil, and Italy.

#6 = The Boys in the Boat

In its sophomore frame, Amazon MGM Studios’ inspirational sports drama sinks only -28% to $6.1M.

After opening midweek on a Monday for Christmas Day, Boat has earned $33.9M through 14 days.

Compared to other similar inspirational sports dramas of the 2010s and 2020s, through the same point in release, Boat is running ahead of:

  • 2.2x 2016’s Race = $14.9M
  • +98% above 2021’s American Underdog = $17.0M
  • +78% above 2009’s Invictus = $18.9M
  • +71% above 2014’s When the Game Stands Tall = $19.7M
  • +38% above 2014’s Million Dollar Arm = $24.3M
  • +12% above 2006’s We Are Marshall = $30.2M
  • +11% above 2010’s Secretariat = $30.4M

However, it’s running behind:

  • -11% below 2005’s Cinderella Man = $38.3M
  • -15% below 2006’s Invincible = $39.8M
  • -20% below 2004’s Miracle = $42.5M
  • -41% below 2003’s Seabiscuit = $57.5M
  • -42% below 2013’s 42 about Jackie Robinson = $58.3M

#7 = The Color Purple

In its sophomore frame, the Warner Bros. musical fails to see much “grene” with a steep -59% to $4.7M.

After opening midweek on a Monday for Christmas Day, Purple has earned $54.6M through 14 days.

That’s running behind most other recent December musicals, though it’s at least ahead of West Side Story and Cats:

  • -52% below 2018’s Mary Poppins Returns = $114.5M
  • -50% below Wonka = $110.6M
  • -47% below 2012’s Les Misérables = $104.7M
  • -42% below 2014’s Into the Woods = $94.5M
  • -10% below 2014’s Annie = $61.2M
  • -6% below 2017’s The Greatest Showman = $58.0M

#8 = The Iron Claw

In its third frame, A24’s wrestling drama declines by only -3% to $4.5M.

Box office comparisons to other wrestling-themed awards contender dramas are difficult, because both 2008’s The Wrestler and 2014’s Foxcatcher had expanded rollouts rather than opening wide.

Though hardly a genre comparison, Claw stands a small chance of becoming distributor A24’s biggest title. It’s earned $24.8M through 17 days of wide release, running only -7% below 2022’s Everything Everywhere All at Once = $26.9M.

#9 = Ferrari

In its sophomore frame, Neon’s biopic skids -36% to $2.5M.

After opening midweek on a Monday for Christmas Day, Ferrari has earned $16.0M through 14 days. It’s running:

  • -55% below 2021’s House of Gucci, also starring Adam Driver = $35.5M
  • -76% below 2019’s Ford v. Ferrari = $67.8M

#10= Poor Things

In its fifth frame, Searchlight Pictures’ Poor Things declined a mild -12% to $2.0M.

It’s now earned $14.2M total, though that seems unlikely to match writer-director Yorgos Lantihimos’ and star Emma Stone’s 2018 The Favourite with $34.3M.

Read Boxoffice PRO’s interview with Poor Things cinematographer Robbie Ryan here:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/and-god-created-woman-cinematographer-robbie-ryan-reunites-with-yorgos-lanthimos-on-poor-things/ 

Limited releases

In its fourth frame, MGM’s satirical dark comedy American Fiction remains in limited release with $1.0M in 114 theaters, before expanding wider next weekend on January 12. Its opening per-theater average ranked #14 of 2023.

In its second frame, Searchlight Pictures’ fantasy drama All of Us Strangers took in $129K in four theaters, before expanding wider in January. Its opening per-theater average ranked #16 of 2023.

Read Boxoffice PRO’s interview with All of Us Strangers writer/director Andrew Haigh here:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/the-power-of-love-writer-director-andrew-haigh-reflects-on-his-haunting-drama-all-of-us-strangers/ 

In its fourth frame, A24’s drama The Zone of Interest took in $86K from six theaters, before expanding wider in January. Its opening per-theater average ranked #13 of 2023.

Weekend comparisons

Total box office this weekend comes in around $85.9M.

Here’s how this weekend compares to last weekend, the same weekend last year, and the same weekend in the last pre-pandemic year of 2019:

Weekend

Total

This weekend is:

Leader

Last weekend

$112.9M

-24%

Wonka [third frame / second at #1] = $22.4M

Same weekend in 2023

$106.2M

-19%

Avatar: The Way of Water [fourth  frame] = $45.8M

Same weekend in 2019

$138.8M

-38%

Aquaman [third frame] = $31.0M

YTD comparisons

Year-to-date box office stands around $171.2M

Here’s how that compares to last year and the last pre-pandemic year of 2019:

Year

YTD total

2024 YTD now:

After last weekend:

Trend

2023

$141.5M

+21%

N/A

N/A

2019

$252.7M

-32%

N/A

N/A

Top distributors

Here are the current rankings of the “Big Five” distributors. This early on in the year, mid-level distributors such as Lionsgate, Neon, and A24 are actually below Paramount and even Disney.

Grouped by parent company, the YTD leaders are:

  1. Warner Bros.: $65.6M
  2. Universal + Focus Features: $38.8M
  3. Sony Pictures + Sony Classics + Crunchyroll + Affirm: $19.5M
  4. Disney + 20th Century + Searchlight + Star: $6.4M
  5. Paramount: $44K (though they release the musical reboot of Mean Girls next weekend)

Sunday’s Studio Weekend Estimates:

Title  Estimated weekend  % change Locations Location change Average  Total  Weekend Distributor
Wonka $14,430,000 -36% $3,817 -234 $3,780 $164,654,000 4 Warner Bros.
Night Swim $12,000,000   $3,250   $3,692 $12,000,000 1 Universal
Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom $10,610,000 -42% $3,553 -234 $2,986 $100,021,000 3 Warner Bros.
Migration $10,250,000 -40% $3,712 -127 $2,761 $77,820,000 3 Universal
Anyone But You $9,500,000 9% $3,055   $3,110 $43,713,644 3 Sony Pictures
The Boys in the Boat $6,020,991 -28% $2,687 130 $2,241 $33,897,610 2 MGM
The Color Purple $4,765,000 -59% $3,218 15 $1,481 $54,621,000 2 Warner Bros.
The Iron Claw $4,521,555 -3% $2,392 -382 $1,890 $24,878,696 3 A24
Ferrari $2,505,000 -36% $2,121 -265 $1,181 $16,005,459 2 Neon
Poor Things $2,000,000 -12% $750 -50 $2,667 $14,227,242 5 Searchlight [Disney]
The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes $1,835,000 -36% $1,428 -232 $1,285 $163,836,572 8 Lionsgate
Godzilla Minus One $1,725,000 -24% $1,050 -130 $1,643 $49,165,843 6 Toho International
The Boy and the Heron $1,721,819 -28% $910 -30 $1,892 $39,607,451 5 GKIDS
Trolls Band Together $1,210,000 -38% $1,137 -380 $1,064 $100,420,000 8 Universal
American Fiction $1,008,860 146% $114 74 $8,850 $2,978,867 4 MGM
Wish $760,000 -43% $900 -365 $844 $62,579,594 7 Walt Disney
All of Us Strangers $425,000 274% $42 36 $10,119 $865,747 3 Searchlight [Disney]
Napoleon $300,000 -43% $337 -413 $890 $61,204,089 7 Sony Pictures
The Holdovers $110,000 -46% $153 -84 $719 $18,466,000 11 Focus Features [Universal]
The Zone of Interest $86,298 n/c $6   $14,383 $635,479 4 A24
Memory $65,331 167% $14 12 $4,667 $161,053 3 Ketchup Entertainment
Anselm $40,250 42% $16 9 $2,516 $223,433 5 Janus Films
Killers of the Flower Moon $17,000 -38% $35 -2 $486 $67,335,000 12 Paramount
Radical $14,706 -2% $20 6 $735 $8,665,790 10 Pantelion Films
The Sweet East $8,039 56% $2 1 $4,020 $103,315 6 Utopia
The Crime is Mine $7,155 -29% $4 1 $1,789 $34,282 2 Music Box Films
Mayhem! 6,803   $24   $283 $6,803 1 IFC Films
Oppenheimer $4,000 -46% $27 2 $148 $326,108,000 25 Universal
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